US Economic Data Mixed, Overseas Market Copper Prices Decline First Then Rise [Labour Day Holiday Overseas Market Review]

US economic data released during the holiday period was relatively concentrated. Among them, GDP and manufacturing data showed weakness, casting a shadow over the economic growth outlook. Both COMEX copper and LME copper prices fell in tandem. However, the subsequently released US non-farm payrolls data and unemployment rate showed positive results, alleviating market concerns about an economic recession. Additionally, there were signs of easing global trade frictions, and external market sentiment improved slightly. Copper prices in the overseas market rebounded overall, with LME copper prices almost fully recovering, while COMEX copper remained relatively weak, with its overall center still slightly shifting downward.

Mixed US Economic Data Persists, Market Uncertainty Remains

On the eve of the holiday, China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs for April were released, both showing a decline MoM, indicating a pullback in the manufacturing sector's prosperity level. US economic data released during the holiday period was mixed. Specifically, the initial estimate for the US Q1 real GDP annualized growth rate was a decline of 0.3%, compared to a survey forecast of 0.3% growth. The US April ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, the lowest since November 2024, but higher than the market's prior expectation of 48. US April non-farm payrolls data showed an increase of 177,000 jobs, exceeding expectations, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.2%, indicating no signs of weakness in the US job market. Additionally, the US Fed's closely watched core PCE price index for March showed a slight MoM decline, suggesting no urgency for the Fed to cut interest rates. Overall, US manufacturing data showed weakness, indicating certain pressures on economic growth. However, positive job and inflation data alleviated market concerns to some extent.

Although there are still signs of easing global trade frictions that previously troubled investors, uncertainties regarding US tariff policies persist. Additionally, US manufacturing data is under pressure. Despite the relatively positive performance of subsequently released US non-farm data, the US dollar index still experienced a weak rebound, with its center not significantly shifting upward.

Chile's Copper Production in March Surged by Over 20%, COMEX Copper Inventories Accumulated

On April 30, data released by the Chilean government showed that Chile's copper production in March increased by 9.1% YoY. Additionally, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that Chile's copper production in March was 477,049 mt, a significant increase of 20% MoM and higher than the same period since 2022. Chile's copper production in February was temporarily constrained by global power outages, but production recovered significantly in March.

Before the holiday, due to relatively strong domestic demand and a narrowing price difference between primary metal and scrap, the substitutability of copper cathode consumption increased. As a result, China's social inventory of copper cathode continued to decline, significantly lower than the level of the same period last year. Amid the continuous decline in domestic inventories, overseas copper inventories showed divergent performances. LME copper inventories fluctuated downward, currently falling below 200,000 mt to around 197,000 mt. In contrast, COMEX copper inventories continued to accumulate. Earlier, due to concerns about US tariffs on imported copper, global copper shifted towards the US, with inventories becoming more visible recently.

On May 2, London copper futures rose, achieving a slight weekly increase as market concerns about trade tensions eased somewhat.

On May 1, London copper futures rose, rebounding from a sharp decline the previous day.

On April 30, London copper futures fell by over 3%, recording the largest monthly decline since June 2022, dragged down by lingering trade uncertainties.